Target wide receivers for your fantasy football flex position

August 27, 2024

In a standard 12-team, point-per-reception fantasy football league, a typical starting lineup includes a quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, one tight end, one kicker, one defense/special teams — and a flex spot. That flex spot could be the key to your season. It allows you to start either another running back, wide receiver or tight end, a decision that could have massive repercussions on your fantasy outlook.

Luckily, the decision is an easy one: Plan to target and deploy a wide receiver for your flex spot, a choice that should shape your late-round fantasy draft strategy.

Why? Running backs are often heavily reliant on volume and touchdowns to achieve high fantasy point totals. That means the difference in potential between running backs taken in the early rounds and those taken later becomes more pronounced, since there are so only so many carries and touchdowns to go around. And most tight ends are too touchdown-dependent to consider for the flex spot except in cases of emergency. Meanwhile, enough wide receivers can make impactful contributions through receptions (in PPR leagues) and yards that they offer consistent value, even in later rounds, to say nothing of off the waiver wire.

In essence, wide receivers exhibit a more gradual drop in average fantasy points by round because of their adaptability, the evolving nature of NFL offenses, the way catches and receiving yards are distributed and their ability to exploit various facets of the game.

One way to illustrate why planning to use a wide receiver in the flex spots gives you a draft-day edge is by looking at impact values — a concept that helps us measure the significance of different factors in achieving high-scoring weeks.

For example, let’s look at the data for running backs and wide receivers who score 30 points or more in a week, a total that would significantly boost your chances for a weekly win. The impact value for a running back selected in the first round producing a 30-point week is 3.4, meaning they’re about 3.4 times more likely to achieve such a high-scoring week than a running back picked at random. As the rounds progress, the impact value decreases. A running back drafted in the second round has an impact value of 1.8 for a 30-point week, which means they are 1.8 times more likely to achieve it compared to the baseline. Running backs drafted in later rounds have even lower impact values, indicating a decreasing likelihood of hitting the 30-point mark.

By comparison, a wide receiver drafted in the first round has an impact value of 3.7 for a 30-point week while a wide receiver drafted in the second round has an impact value of 2.1. Just like with running backs, the impact values for wide receivers decrease as the rounds progress, just not as dramatically.

So in general, wide receivers taken in the later rounds provide more consistent value than running backs. The specifics of which players you are drafting will matter, of course, and you’re unlikely to keep all your late-round picks for the full season, as injuries, waiver-wire additions and other changes lead to roster overhauls. Still, it’s worth knowing that you are better off planning to fill your flex spot with wide receivers — and acting accordingly during your draft.

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